The Broncos running backs tended to perform well whenever healthy, while Rhodes tore his ACL after his rookie season and was never the same player. If we drop the cut-off to pick 125, we add one more running back: Olandis Gary.īy adding undrafted running backs, we finally get a non-Shanahan player: Dominic Rhodes. For all his faults, Mike Shanahan has achieved unparalleled success with lowly-regarded running backs. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out what those two backs have in common with Morris, either. From 1988 to 2007, only two running backs drafted after pick 150 gained 1,000 yards as a rookie: Terrell Davis and Mike Anderson. The next Shanahan star.What about Morris? As you might imagine, it’s not easy finding comparisons. I’m not pessimistic on Richardson’s outlook, but I think the noncontroversial position is his career outlook looks slightly less rosy now than it did a year ago. I think a player like Ricky Williams is a good comparison for many reasons, although that would appear to be the optimistic projection for him over the next four years. The black dotted line running vertically from the 950-yard mark shows where Trent Richardson will one day be placed. Of course, year one can be a big component of through-five-years-production, so that probably explains some part of the correlation.įor the most part, the “busts as rookies” group tended to underperform, although players like Garrison Hearst, Cedric Benson, and Thomas Jones did experience late-career success with other teams. Adrian Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Barry Sanders, Edgerrin James, Jerome Bettis, Marshall Faulk and Fred Taylor all topped the 1200-yard mark, and all turned into very good-to-Hall of Fame caliber players. I suspect that’s because top-ten running backs are given ample opportunity to succeed, and running back is perhaps the easiest position for a rookie to excel the learning curve is not great (at least when it comes to running), so if you don’t show it early on, odds are you don’t have elite ability. The first four letters of each player’s last name and first two letter of their first name are next to the data point.Īs you can see, there’s a pretty clear relationship between rookie production and how that player fared over the long-term. The top five picks are in blue, while the other top-ten selections are in red. The table below shows how many rushing yards those 23 running backs gained during their rookie season (on the X-Axis) and over the first five years of their career (on the Y-Axis). Over that time frame, there were 23 running backs selected in the top 10 of the draft, with 14 of them being chosen in the top five. Instead, let’s look at the 20-year period from 1988 to 2007. But we don’t need AV to compare running backs to each other. On average, we expect the 3rd pick in the draft to produce about 34 points of Approximate Value, while Morris’ 173rd slot is expected to add only two points of career AV. So where do we stand on Richardson and Morris? A year later, how much credit do we give Richardson for having been the #3 pick in the draft? For Morris, how much do we downgrade him for being a 6th round pick? And how does the presence of Robert Griffin III complicate things? But in recent years, that trend has reversed itself: the odds are long that Ben Tate (2011), LeGarrette Blount (2010), Knowshon Moreno (2009 and competing with Arian Foster and LeSean McCoy), or Steve Slaton (2008) will also finish with the best careers from their class. From 1992 to 2002, 10 of the 11 backs to lead their class in rushing yards as rookies ended up finishing with the most career rushing yards. In August, I compared how the top rookie running back performed over the rest of his career relative to the other members of his class. The final post on the topic ended up being more relevant to Alfred Morris than Richardson. (For more on "Home Grown Players" and an explanation on the Under-21s, see the bottom of the page.In that post, I also noted that the running back drafted first in his class was slightly less successful over the course of his career: only one-third of the highest-drafted running backs finished with the most career rushing yards in their class. The rest of the squad, up to a total of 25 players, must be "Home Grown".Įach club's squad list is below, as well as an additional list of each club's registered Under-21 players who are eligible over and above the squad limit of 25 players. After the closure of the summer 2023 transfer window, each Premier League club have to submit squad lists.Įach squad contains no more than 17 players who do not fulfil the "Home Grown Player" (HGP) criteria.
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